"Wanna have sun in the winter,
Wanna have snow in the summer"
It remains incredibly hot and dry back here in Germany, and markets seem to enter their siesta as well.
As usual the "market weather backcast" contains the ichimoku analysis of 22 indices, futures and FOREX pairs. The linked charts contain all the details and neccessary context. Both charts and tables are generated automatically, at the moment the software is still work in progress. As such, I am not sure if it works 100% correctly, so if you see a mistake, would like to see an addition/change or simply give feedback: feel free to mail me at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.Thanks a lot :)
Last two weeks triggered 7 signals in 6 different markets (out of 22 in the investment universe):
If you would like to play around with the system that is used to generate the signals and charts on this blog, you can do so! The latest version of my software, ichinscratchy v0.3.0, was released in December 2017. It´s free & open source, you can find it under http://spare-time-trading.de/en/trading-system. Work on the next version (that will be a maintenance release) is progressing nicely. In fact I started using a development snapshot of the upcoming v0.4.0 to do this weekly analysis/overview as this part is already stable enough. You can check out the development activities at gitlab: https://gitlab.com/werwurm/ichi_reloaded.However, there is no release date yet. It´s done when it´s done...
Last week the major indices diverged somewhat: while the ones within the eurozone corrected, the US indices look pretty strong (as does the Swiss SMI). A look at the EUR/USD chart shows a 2 month period of going sidewaysm while EUR/JPY at least somehow tries to move. Chinese Hang Seng remains a candidate for short. Gold is still in the elevator going downwards, Silver on the other hand seems to take a break from its downtrend. For all markets in the investment universe (especially for an intermarket analysis), as usual: check the charts and tables below!
All STRONG signals of the 31st week 2018, ordered by symbols:
+------------+-----------+---------------+-------+------------------+--------------+
| date | symbol | name | type | amp_info | price_quote |
+------------+-----------+---------------+-------+------------------+--------------+
| 2018-07-31 | Coffee | Kijun Cross | short | Death X | 109.900000 |
| 2018-07-31 | EURJPY | Kijun Cross | long | Golden X | 130.800000 |
| 2018-08-01 | HSI | Kijun Cross | short | Death X | 28340.700000 |
| 2018-08-03 | Palladium | Kijun Cross | short | Death X | 907.900000 |
| 2018-08-02 | STOXX50E | Senkou Cross | long | 2018-09-07 | 3469.210000 |
| 2018-08-01 | WTI | Kumo Breakout | short | from rising Kumo | 67.660000 |
| 2018-08-03 | WTI | Kumo Breakout | short | from rising Kumo | 68.490000 |
+------------+-----------+---------------+-------+------------------+--------------+
Below is the gallery for the charts:
BuFu_light
Cocoa_light
Coffee_light
Copper_light
Cotton_light
DAX_light
DJI_light
DJTransp_light
EURJPY_light
EURUSD_light
Gold_light
HSI_light
N225_light
OJuice_light
Palladium_light
SMI_light
SPX_light
STOXX50E_light
Silver_light
Soybeans_light
Sugar_light
WTI_light
If you downloaded my software and wonder about the system settings, a quick overview for the most relevant ones used for this weekly overview:
- Ichimoku time period settings are standard (9,26,52), only strong signals are shown.
- ICHI_CHIKOU_CONFIRM = true (Chikou Span is used as confirmation/ filter for trend).
- ICHI_KUMO_CONFIRM = false (Kumo breakouts have to be higher/lower than last reaction high/low to be valid)
- SIGNAL_REGIME_FILTER = none (all market regime filters are off)
- SIGNAL_EXECUTION_PYRAMID = full (use every signal even if it is already in portfolio)
Below as mentioned the list with the evaluation of the status quo using Ichimoku. The tables also list the last three Strong Ichimoku Signals.
Wish you relaxing Trading!
DAX |
2018-08-03 |
12615.76 |
price in kumo |
--> sideways |
no trades |
Chikou-Span at 12418.39 in kumo or between kumo and price |
Kumo on 2018-06-28 |
from 12465.46 to 12909.79 |
price 12177.23 |
Last 3 STRONG signals: |
2018-07-27 |
Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) |
Long at 12860.40 |
2018-07-25 |
Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) |
Short at 12579.33 |
2018-07-11 |
Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) |
Short at 12417.13 |
|
|
|
DJI |
2018-08-03 |
25462.58 |
price above kumo |
--> Uptrend |
Signal filter LONG |
confirmed by Chikou-Span |
Kumo on 2018-06-27 |
from 24396.84 to 24507.04 |
price 24117.59 |
Last 3 STRONG signals: |
2018-07-09 |
Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) |
Long at 24776.59 |
2018-07-09 |
Kijun Cross (from rising Kumo) |
Long at 24776.59 |
2018-06-25 |
Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) |
Short at 24252.80 |
|
|
|
DJTransp |
2018-08-03 |
11097.0 |
price above kumo |
--> Uptrend |
Signal filter LONG |
confirmed by Chikou-Span |
Kumo on 2018-06-27 |
from 10473.4 to 10580.7 |
price 10331.6 |
Last 3 STRONG signals: |
2018-07-26 |
Senkou Cross (2018-08-31) |
Long at 10984.9 |
2018-07-16 |
Kumo Breakout (2018-08-31) |
Short at 10435.5 |
2018-07-11 |
Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) |
Short at 10442.5 |
|
|
|
HSI |
2018-08-03 |
27676.3 |
price below kumo |
--> Downtrend |
Signal filter SHORT |
confirmed by Chikou-Span |
Kumo on 2018-06-27 |
from 30748.4 to 30775.2 |
price 28356.3 |
Last 3 STRONG signals: |
2018-08-01 |
Kijun Cross (Death X) |
Short at 28340.7 |
2018-07-26 |
Kijun Cross (Death X) |
Short at 28781.1 |
2018-06-19 |
Senkou Cross (2018-07-26) |
Short at 29468.2 |
|
|
|
N225 |
2018-08-03 |
22525.2 |
price above kumo |
--> Uptrend |
Signal filter LONG |
NOT confirmed by Chikou --> no stable trend |
Kumo on 2018-06-27 |
from 21698.9 to 22527.7 |
price 22271.8 |
Last 3 STRONG signals: |
2018-07-26 |
Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) |
Long at 22586.9 |
2018-07-05 |
Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) |
Short at 21547.0 |
2018-06-12 |
Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Golden X) |
Long at 22878.3 |
|
|
|
STOXX50E |
2018-08-03 |
3482.40 |
price above kumo |
--> Uptrend |
Signal filter LONG |
NOT confirmed by Chikou --> no stable trend |
Kumo on 2018-06-28 |
from 3429.03 to 3546.22 |
price 3365.52 |
Last 3 STRONG signals: |
2018-08-02 |
Senkou Cross (2018-09-07) |
Long at 3469.21 |
2018-07-26 |
Kumo Breakout (2018-09-07) |
Long at 3509.26 |
2018-07-23 |
Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) |
Short at 3454.05 |
|
|
|
SMI |
2018-08-03 |
9158.0 |
price above kumo |
--> Uptrend |
Signal filter LONG |
confirmed by Chikou-Span |
Kumo on 2018-06-27 |
from 8763.5 to 8913.2 |
price 8504.5 |
Last 3 STRONG signals: |
2018-07-18 |
Senkou Cross (2018-08-24) |
Long at 8938.1 |
2018-07-12 |
Kumo Breakout (2018-08-24) |
Long at 8818.2 |
2018-07-09 |
Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) |
Long at 8759.9 |
|
|
|
SPX |
2018-08-03 |
2840.35 |
price above kumo |
--> Uptrend |
Signal filter LONG |
confirmed by Chikou-Span |
Kumo on 2018-06-27 |
from 2677.85 to 2688.24 |
price 2699.63 |
Last 3 STRONG signals: |
2018-07-12 |
Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Golden X) |
Long at 2798.29 |
2018-07-06 |
Kijun Cross (Golden X) |
Long at 2759.82 |
2018-07-05 |
Chikou Cross (2018-05-29) |
Long at 2736.61 |
|
|
|
BuFu |
2018-08-03 |
162.05 |
price above kumo |
--> Uptrend |
Signal filter LONG |
NOT confirmed by Chikou --> no stable trend |
Kumo on 2018-06-28 |
from 158.36 to 158.68 |
price 162.46 |
Last 3 STRONG signals: |
2018-07-25 |
Kijun Cross (Golden X) |
Long at 162.37 |
2018-06-27 |
Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Golden X) |
Long at 162.30 |
2018-06-21 |
Senkou Cross (2018-07-27) |
Long at 162.15 |
|
|
|
Cocoa |
2018-08-03 |
2039.50 |
price below kumo |
--> Downtrend |
Signal filter SHORT |
confirmed by Chikou-Span |
Kumo on 2018-06-27 |
from 2678.25 to 2741.12 |
price 2369.50 |
Last 3 STRONG signals: |
2018-07-27 |
Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Death X) |
Short at 2219.50 |
2018-06-22 |
Kijun Cross (Death X) |
Short at 2508.50 |
2018-07-18 |
Chikou Cross (2018-06-11) |
Short at 2335.50 |
|
|
|
Coffee |
2018-08-03 |
107.750 |
price below kumo |
--> Downtrend |
Signal filter SHORT |
confirmed by Chikou-Span |
Kumo on 2018-06-27 |
from 117.550 to 118.585 |
price 114.300 |
Last 3 STRONG signals: |
2018-07-31 |
Kijun Cross (Death X) |
Short at 109.900 |
2018-07-26 |
Kijun Cross (Death X) |
Short at 109.550 |
2018-06-15 |
Senkou Cross (2018-07-24) |
Short at 115.200 |
|
|
|
Copper |
2018-08-03 |
2.753 |
price below kumo |
--> Downtrend |
Signal filter SHORT |
confirmed by Chikou-Span |
Kumo on 2018-06-29 |
from 3.055 to 3.081 |
price 2.951 |
Last 3 STRONG signals: |
2018-06-21 |
Senkou Cross (2018-07-26) |
Short at 3.025 |
2018-06-19 |
Kumo Breakout (2018-07-26) |
Short at 3.046 |
2018-06-05 |
Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Golden X) |
Long at 3.191 |
|
|
|
Cotton |
2018-08-03 |
88.1700 |
price below kumo |
--> Downtrend |
Signal filter SHORT |
NOT confirmed by Chikou --> no stable trend |
Kumo on 2018-06-27 |
from 83.6750 to 85.5800 |
price 85.8400 |
Last 3 STRONG signals: |
2018-07-20 |
Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) |
Short at 87.1100 |
2018-07-02 |
Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) |
Short at 82.9700 |
2018-06-22 |
Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) |
Long at 85.8100 |
|
|
|
Gold |
2018-08-03 |
1214.200 |
price below kumo |
--> Downtrend |
Signal filter SHORT |
confirmed by Chikou-Span |
Kumo on 2018-06-29 |
from 1301.125 to 1327.300 |
price 1251.300 |
Last 3 STRONG signals: |
2018-06-26 |
Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Death X) |
Short at 1256.600 |
2018-06-15 |
Kijun Cross (Death X) |
Short at 1274.600 |
2018-06-11 |
Kijun Cross (Death X) |
Short at 1298.900 |
|
|
|
OJuice |
2018-08-03 |
168.9 |
price above kumo |
--> Uptrend |
Signal filter LONG |
confirmed by Chikou-Span |
Kumo on 2018-06-27 |
from 153.5 to 162.4 |
price 157.4 |
Last 3 STRONG signals: |
2018-07-25 |
Kijun Cross (Golden X) |
Long at 164.8 |
2018-07-06 |
Chikou Cross (Golden X) |
Long at 168.4 |
2018-04-26 |
Senkou Cross (2018-06-04) |
Long at 152.1 |
|
|
|
Palladium |
2018-08-03 |
907.9 |
price below kumo |
--> Downtrend |
Signal filter SHORT |
confirmed by Chikou-Span |
Kumo on 2018-07-01 |
from 969.5 to 974.9 |
price 950.4 |
Last 3 STRONG signals: |
2018-08-03 |
Kijun Cross (Death X) |
Short at 907.9 |
2018-06-25 |
Senkou Cross (Death X) |
Short at 935.4 |
2018-06-19 |
Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) |
Short at 960.3 |
|
|
|
Silver |
2018-08-03 |
15.406 |
price below kumo |
--> Downtrend |
Signal filter SHORT |
confirmed by Chikou-Span |
Kumo on 2018-07-04 |
from 16.429 to 16.600 |
price 16.130 |
Last 3 STRONG signals: |
2018-06-26 |
Senkou Cross (2018-07-26) |
Short at 16.275 |
2018-06-25 |
Kumo Breakout (2018-07-26) |
Short at 16.308 |
2018-06-19 |
Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) |
Short at 16.303 |
|
|
|
Soybeans |
2018-08-03 |
892.5 |
price below kumo |
--> Downtrend |
Signal filter SHORT |
NOT confirmed by Chikou --> no stable trend |
Kumo on 2018-06-28 |
from 1023.1 to 1025.5 |
price 869.0 |
Last 3 STRONG signals: |
2018-06-06 |
Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Death X) |
Short at 995.5 |
2018-06-04 |
Senkou Cross (Death X) |
Short at 1002.2 |
2018-06-04 |
Kijun Cross (Death X) |
Short at 1002.2 |
|
|
|
Sugar |
2018-08-03 |
10.85 |
price below kumo |
--> Downtrend |
Signal filter SHORT |
confirmed by Chikou-Span |
Kumo on 2018-06-27 |
from 11.58 to 11.90 |
price 11.72 |
Last 3 STRONG signals: |
2018-07-10 |
Senkou Cross (2018-08-15) |
Short at 11.41 |
2018-07-02 |
Kumo Breakout (2018-08-15) |
Short at 11.56 |
2018-06-26 |
Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) |
Long at 12.12 |
|
|
|
WTI |
2018-08-03 |
68.490 |
price below kumo |
--> Downtrend |
Signal filter SHORT |
NOT confirmed by Chikou --> no stable trend |
Kumo on 2018-06-29 |
from 67.360 to 69.360 |
price 74.150 |
Last 3 STRONG signals: |
2018-08-03 |
Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) |
Short at 68.490 |
2018-08-01 |
Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) |
Short at 67.660 |
2018-07-24 |
Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) |
Long at 68.520 |
|
|
|
EURJPY |
2018-08-03 |
128.710 |
price above kumo |
--> Uptrend |
Signal filter LONG |
NOT confirmed by Chikou --> no stable trend |
Kumo on 2018-07-04 |
from 127.503 to 129.065 |
price 128.780 |
Last 3 STRONG signals: |
2018-07-31 |
Kijun Cross (Golden X) |
Long at 130.800 |
2018-07-05 |
Kumo Breakout (Golden X) |
Long at 129.330 |
2018-06-29 |
Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) |
Long at 129.330 |
|
|
|
EURUSD |
2018-08-03 |
1.15670 |
price below kumo |
--> Downtrend |
Signal filter SHORT |
confirmed by Chikou-Span |
Kumo on 2018-06-28 |
from 1.19105 to 1.20770 |
price 1.15690 |
Last 3 STRONG signals: |
2018-07-17 |
Kijun Cross (Death X) |
Short at 1.16610 |
2018-07-11 |
Kumo Breakout (Death X) |
Short at 1.16740 |
2018-07-11 |
Kijun Cross (Death X) |
Short at 1.16740 |
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