"There´s always a bigger fish."
This one is not only a good T-Shirt slogan, but also applies to trading. Are you really smarter and better equipped than your competitors? Are you on the right side of the Bell Curve (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution#Standard_deviation_and_coverage)?
As usual the "market weather backcast" contains the ichimoku analysis of 22 indices, futures and FOREX pairs. The linked charts contain all the details and neccessary context. Both charts and tables are generated automatically, at the moment the software is still work in progress. As such, I am not sure if it works 100% correctly, so if you see a mistake, would like to see an addition/change or simply give feedback: feel free to mail me at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.Thanks a lot :)
Last two weeks triggered 10 signals in 7 different markets (out of 22 in the investment universe):
If you would like to play around with the system that is used to generate the signals and charts on this blog, you can do so! The latest version of my software, ichinscratchy v0.3.0, was released in December 2017. It´s free & open source, you can find it under http://spare-time-trading.de/en/trading-system. Work on the next version (that will be a maintenance release) is progressing nicely. In fact I started using a development snapshot of the upcoming v0.4.0 to do this weekly analysis/overview as this part is already stable enough. You can check out the development activities at gitlab: https://gitlab.com/werwurm/ichi_reloaded.However, there is no release date yet. It´s done when it´s done...
Markets did not change that much, so I won't repeat myself over and over again. Instead I refer to
last week´s overview. What is different? Not that much, Eurozone is regaining some (little) ground but still in bearish territory, US indices recovering from a little pullback (and are still within long trends). Palladium looks still very strong.
In general, this week´s signals don't look so convincing- but that is just my gut feeling. Trading an automated system is so easy, as there is no gut interface. Get a signal, trade it. For the complete overview, look at last weeks analysis and compare to this week, for all markets in the investment universe (especially for an intermarket analysis), as usual: check the charts and tables below!
All STRONG signals of the 37th week 2018, ordered by symbols:
+------------+--------+---------------+-------+-------------------+--------------+
| date | symbol | name | type | amp_info | price_quote |
+------------+--------+---------------+-------+-------------------+--------------+
| 2018-09-12 | Cocoa | Kumo Breakout | long | from falling Kumo | 2355.000000 |
| 2018-09-14 | Copper | Kijun Cross | short | Death X | 2.627000 |
| 2018-09-13 | EURJPY | Senkou Cross | long | 2018-10-19 | 130.840000 |
| 2018-09-11 | EURJPY | Kumo Breakout | long | from falling Kumo | 129.570000 |
| 2018-09-13 | EURUSD | Kumo Breakout | long | from falling Kumo | 1.169000 |
| 2018-09-11 | N225 | Kumo Breakout | long | from rising Kumo | 22665.500000 |
| 2018-09-11 | N225 | Kijun Cross | long | Golden X | 22665.500000 |
| 2018-09-13 | N225 | Chikou Cross | long | 2018-08-08 | 22829.000000 |
| 2018-09-13 | Sugar | Kumo Breakout | long | from falling Kumo | 11.680000 |
| 2018-09-12 | WTI | Kumo Breakout | long | from rising Kumo | 70.370000 |
+------------+--------+---------------+-------+-------------------+--------------+
Below is the gallery for the charts:
BuFu_light
Cocoa_light
Coffee_light
Copper_light
Cotton_light
DAX_light
DJI_light
DJTransp_light
EURJPY_light
EURUSD_light
Gold_light
HSI_light
N225_light
OJuice_light
Palladium_light
SMI_light
SPX_light
STOXX50E_light
Silver_light
Soybeans_light
Sugar_light
WTI_light
If you downloaded my software and wonder about the system settings, a quick overview for the most relevant ones used for this weekly overview:
- Ichimoku time period settings are standard (9,26,52), only strong signals are shown.
- ICHI_CHIKOU_CONFIRM = true (Chikou Span is used as confirmation/ filter for trend).
- ICHI_KUMO_CONFIRM = false (Kumo breakouts have to be higher/lower than last reaction high/low to be valid)
- SIGNAL_REGIME_FILTER = none (all market regime filters are off)
- SIGNAL_EXECUTION_PYRAMID = full (use every signal even if it is already in portfolio)
Below as mentioned the list with the evaluation of the status quo using Ichimoku. The tables also list the last three Strong Ichimoku Signals.
Wish you relaxing Trading!
| DAX |
2018-09-14 |
12124.33 |
| price below kumo |
--> Downtrend |
Signal filter SHORT |
| confirmed by Chikou-Span |
| Kumo on 2018-08-09 |
from 12489.65 to 12654.36 |
price 12676.11 |
| Last 3 STRONG signals: |
| 2018-08-30 |
Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) |
Short at 12494.24 |
| 2018-08-30 |
Kijun Cross (from falling Kumo) |
Short at 12494.24 |
| 2018-08-10 |
Senkou Cross (2018-09-17) |
Short at 12424.35 |
| |
|
|
| DJI |
2018-09-14 |
26154.67 |
| price above kumo |
--> Uptrend |
Signal filter LONG |
| confirmed by Chikou-Span |
| Kumo on 2018-08-08 |
from 24467.07 to 24550.50 |
price 25583.75 |
| Last 3 STRONG signals: |
| 2018-08-16 |
Kijun Cross (Golden X) |
Long at 25558.73 |
| 2018-07-09 |
Kumo Breakout (Golden X) |
Long at 24776.59 |
| 2018-07-09 |
Kijun Cross (Golden X) |
Long at 24776.59 |
| |
|
|
| DJTransp |
2018-09-14 |
11570.8 |
| price above kumo |
--> Uptrend |
Signal filter LONG |
| confirmed by Chikou-Span |
| Kumo on 2018-08-08 |
from 10604.6 to 10611.8 |
price 11174.9 |
| Last 3 STRONG signals: |
| 2018-07-26 |
Senkou Cross (2018-08-31) |
Long at 10984.9 |
| 2018-07-16 |
Kumo Breakout (2018-08-31) |
Short at 10435.5 |
| 2018-07-11 |
Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) |
Short at 10442.5 |
| |
|
|
| HSI |
2018-09-14 |
27286.4 |
| price below kumo |
--> Downtrend |
Signal filter SHORT |
| confirmed by Chikou-Span |
| Kumo on 2018-08-09 |
from 29346.1 to 29791.5 |
price 28607.3 |
| Last 3 STRONG signals: |
| 2018-09-06 |
Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Death X) |
Short at 26974.8 |
| 2018-09-05 |
Kijun Cross (Death X) |
Short at 27243.8 |
| 2018-09-03 |
Kijun Cross (Death X) |
Short at 27712.5 |
| |
|
|
| N225 |
2018-09-14 |
23101.5 |
| price above kumo |
--> Uptrend |
Signal filter LONG |
| confirmed by Chikou-Span |
| Kumo on 2018-08-09 |
from 22235.7 to 22312.5 |
price 22598.4 |
| Last 3 STRONG signals: |
| 2018-09-11 |
Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) |
Long at 22665.5 |
| 2018-09-11 |
Kijun Cross (from rising Kumo) |
Long at 22665.5 |
| 2018-08-27 |
Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Golden X) |
Long at 22799.6 |
| |
|
|
| STOXX50E |
2018-09-14 |
3344.63 |
| price below kumo |
--> Downtrend |
Signal filter SHORT |
| confirmed by Chikou-Span |
| Kumo on 2018-08-09 |
from 3415.99 to 3468.52 |
price 3494.13 |
| Last 3 STRONG signals: |
| 2018-08-30 |
Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) |
Short at 3430.99 |
| 2018-08-30 |
Kijun Cross (from falling Kumo) |
Short at 3430.99 |
| 2018-08-15 |
Senkou Cross (2018-09-20) |
Short at 3359.08 |
| |
|
|
| SMI |
2018-09-14 |
8970.0 |
| price in kumo |
--> sideways |
no trades |
| Chikou-Span at 8806.6 in kumo or between kumo and price |
| Kumo on 2018-08-09 |
from 8531.7 to 8699.4 |
price 9145.7 |
| Last 3 STRONG signals: |
| 2018-08-30 |
Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Golden X) |
Long at 9042.1 |
| 2018-08-27 |
Kijun Cross (Golden X) |
Long at 9098.7 |
| 2018-08-16 |
Kijun Cross (Golden X) |
Long at 8997.7 |
| |
|
|
| SPX |
2018-09-14 |
2904.98 |
| price above kumo |
--> Uptrend |
Signal filter LONG |
| confirmed by Chikou-Span |
| Kumo on 2018-08-08 |
from 2693.04 to 2733.78 |
price 2857.70 |
| Last 3 STRONG signals: |
| 2018-07-12 |
Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Golden X) |
Long at 2798.29 |
| 2018-07-06 |
Kijun Cross (Golden X) |
Long at 2759.82 |
| 2018-07-05 |
Chikou Cross (2018-05-29) |
Long at 2736.61 |
| |
|
|
| BuFu |
2018-09-14 |
159.17 |
| price below kumo |
--> Downtrend |
Signal filter SHORT |
| confirmed by Chikou-Span |
| Kumo on 2018-08-09 |
from 160.79 to 161.77 |
price 162.50 |
| Last 3 STRONG signals: |
| 2018-09-07 |
Senkou Cross (2018-10-15) |
Short at 159.95 |
| 2018-09-07 |
Kumo Breakout (2018-10-15) |
Short at 159.95 |
| 2018-09-07 |
Kijun Cross (Death X) |
Short at 159.95 |
| |
|
|
| Cocoa |
2018-09-14 |
2219.00 |
| price below kumo |
--> Downtrend |
Signal filter SHORT |
| NOT confirmed by Chikou --> no stable trend |
| Kumo on 2018-08-08 |
from 2447.12 to 2595.75 |
price 2111.00 |
| Last 3 STRONG signals: |
| 2018-09-12 |
Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) |
Long at 2355.00 |
| 2018-07-27 |
Tenkan/Kijun Cross (from falling Kumo) |
Short at 2219.50 |
| 2018-06-22 |
Kijun Cross (Death X) |
Short at 2508.50 |
| |
|
|
| Coffee |
2018-09-14 |
95.450 |
| price below kumo |
--> Downtrend |
Signal filter SHORT |
| confirmed by Chikou-Span |
| Kumo on 2018-08-08 |
from 114.013 to 116.300 |
price 107.850 |
| Last 3 STRONG signals: |
| 2018-07-31 |
Kijun Cross (Death X) |
Short at 109.900 |
| 2018-07-26 |
Kijun Cross (Death X) |
Short at 109.550 |
| 2018-08-13 |
Chikou Cross (2018-07-06) |
Short at 106.250 |
| |
|
|
| Copper |
2018-09-14 |
2.627 |
| price below kumo |
--> Downtrend |
Signal filter SHORT |
| confirmed by Chikou-Span |
| Kumo on 2018-08-13 |
from 2.967 to 3.043 |
price 2.722 |
| Last 3 STRONG signals: |
| 2018-09-14 |
Kijun Cross (Death X) |
Short at 2.627 |
| 2018-09-04 |
Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Death X) |
Short at 2.583 |
| 2018-08-30 |
Kijun Cross (Death X) |
Short at 2.691 |
| |
|
|
| Cotton |
2018-09-14 |
81.8400 |
| price below kumo |
--> Downtrend |
Signal filter SHORT |
| confirmed by Chikou-Span |
| Kumo on 2018-08-08 |
from 87.3700 to 89.0000 |
price 87.1900 |
| Last 3 STRONG signals: |
| 2018-08-14 |
Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Death X) |
Short at 83.0600 |
| 2018-07-20 |
Kumo Breakout (Death X) |
Short at 87.1100 |
| 2018-08-13 |
Chikou Cross (2018-07-06) |
Short at 82.9300 |
| |
|
|
| Gold |
2018-09-14 |
1198.300 |
| price below kumo |
--> Downtrend |
Signal filter SHORT |
| NOT confirmed by Chikou --> no stable trend |
| Kumo on 2018-08-13 |
from 1261.025 to 1278.450 |
price 1191.300 |
| Last 3 STRONG signals: |
| 2018-06-26 |
Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Death X) |
Short at 1256.600 |
| 2018-06-15 |
Kijun Cross (Death X) |
Short at 1274.600 |
| 2018-06-11 |
Kijun Cross (Death X) |
Short at 1298.900 |
| |
|
|
| OJuice |
2018-09-14 |
153.5 |
| price below kumo |
--> Downtrend |
Signal filter SHORT |
| confirmed by Chikou-Span |
| Kumo on 2018-08-08 |
from 157.0 to 160.7 |
price 164.2 |
| Last 3 STRONG signals: |
| 2018-08-16 |
Senkou Cross (2018-09-24) |
Short at 154.4 |
| 2018-08-13 |
Kumo Breakout (2018-09-24) |
Short at 158.5 |
| 2018-07-25 |
Kijun Cross (Golden X) |
Long at 164.8 |
| |
|
|
| Palladium |
2018-09-14 |
998.8 |
| price above kumo |
--> Uptrend |
Signal filter LONG |
| confirmed by Chikou-Span |
| Kumo on 2018-08-10 |
from 959.1 to 975.7 |
price 901.1 |
| Last 3 STRONG signals: |
| 2018-08-29 |
Senkou Cross (2018-10-03) |
Long at 958.5 |
| 2018-08-29 |
Kumo Breakout (2018-10-03) |
Long at 958.5 |
| 2018-08-27 |
Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) |
Long at 941.9 |
| |
|
|
| Silver |
2018-09-14 |
14.042 |
| price below kumo |
--> Downtrend |
Signal filter SHORT |
| confirmed by Chikou-Span |
| Kumo on 2018-08-15 |
from 16.062 to 16.497 |
price 14.421 |
| Last 3 STRONG signals: |
| 2018-06-26 |
Senkou Cross (2018-07-26) |
Short at 16.275 |
| 2018-06-25 |
Kumo Breakout (2018-07-26) |
Short at 16.308 |
| 2018-06-19 |
Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) |
Short at 16.303 |
| |
|
|
| Soybeans |
2018-09-14 |
830.5 |
| price below kumo |
--> Downtrend |
Signal filter SHORT |
| confirmed by Chikou-Span |
| Kumo on 2018-08-10 |
from 902.2 to 952.2 |
price 850.0 |
| Last 3 STRONG signals: |
| 2018-09-04 |
Senkou Cross (2018-10-09) |
Short at 845.0 |
| 2018-08-10 |
Kijun Cross (2018-10-09) |
Short at 850.0 |
| 2018-08-27 |
Chikou Cross (2018-07-22) |
Short at 847.2 |
| |
|
|
| Sugar |
2018-09-14 |
11.16 |
| price in kumo |
--> sideways |
no trades |
| Chikou-Span at 11.14 in kumo or between kumo and price |
| Kumo on 2018-08-08 |
from 11.83 to 12.08 |
price 10.81 |
| Last 3 STRONG signals: |
| 2018-09-13 |
Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) |
Long at 11.68 |
| 2018-07-10 |
Senkou Cross (from falling Kumo) |
Short at 11.41 |
| 2018-07-02 |
Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) |
Short at 11.56 |
| |
|
|
| WTI |
2018-09-14 |
68.990 |
| price below kumo |
--> Downtrend |
Signal filter SHORT |
| NOT confirmed by Chikou --> no stable trend |
| Kumo on 2018-08-10 |
from 69.430 to 70.462 |
price 67.630 |
| Last 3 STRONG signals: |
| 2018-09-12 |
Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) |
Long at 70.370 |
| 2018-09-06 |
Kijun Cross (from rising Kumo) |
Short at 67.770 |
| 2018-08-30 |
Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) |
Long at 70.250 |
| |
|
|
| EURJPY |
2018-09-14 |
130.320 |
| price above kumo |
--> Uptrend |
Signal filter LONG |
| confirmed by Chikou-Span |
| Kumo on 2018-08-15 |
from 128.170 to 129.825 |
price 125.640 |
| Last 3 STRONG signals: |
| 2018-09-13 |
Senkou Cross (2018-10-19) |
Long at 130.840 |
| 2018-09-11 |
Kumo Breakout (2018-10-19) |
Long at 129.570 |
| 2018-09-06 |
Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) |
Short at 128.720 |
| |
|
|
| EURUSD |
2018-09-14 |
1.16300 |
| price below kumo |
--> Downtrend |
Signal filter SHORT |
| NOT confirmed by Chikou --> no stable trend |
| Kumo on 2018-08-09 |
from 1.16527 to 1.18245 |
price 1.15270 |
| Last 3 STRONG signals: |
| 2018-09-13 |
Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) |
Long at 1.16900 |
| 2018-08-31 |
Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) |
Short at 1.16010 |
| 2018-07-17 |
Kijun Cross (Death X) |
Short at 1.16610 |
| |
|
|
BuFu_light
Cocoa_light
Coffee_light
Copper_light
Cotton_light
DAX_light
DJI_light
DJTransp_light
EURJPY_light
EURUSD_light
Gold_light
HSI_light
N225_light
OJuice_light
Palladium_light
SMI_light
SPX_light
STOXX50E_light
Silver_light
Soybeans_light
Sugar_light
WTI_light
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