Ichimoku overview for week 38 2018

"[...] But remember to come back in September!"

Well, a lot of people believe in seasonality and try to get their edge from that. However, I wouldn´t exacly call the few signals of last weeks an autumn rally- YET. Maybe next week.

As usual the "market weather backcast" contains the ichimoku analysis of 22 indices, futures and FOREX pairs. The linked charts contain all the details and neccessary context. Both charts and tables are generated automatically, at the moment the software is still work in progress. As such, I am not sure if it works 100% correctly, so if you see a mistake, would like to see an addition/change or simply give feedback: feel free to mail me at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.Thanks a lot :)

Last two weeks triggered 8 signals in 4 different markets (out of 22 in the investment universe):

If you would like to play around with the system that is used to generate the signals and charts on this blog, you can do so! The latest version of my software, ichinscratchy v0.3.0, was released in December 2017. It´s free & open source, you can find it under http://spare-time-trading.de/en/trading-system. Work on the next version (that will be a maintenance release) is progressing nicely. In fact I started using a development snapshot of the upcoming v0.4.0 to do this weekly analysis/overview as this part is already stable enough. You can check out the development activities at gitlab: https://gitlab.com/werwurm/ichi_reloaded.However, there is no release date yet. It´s done when it´s done...

This week I´d like to start with the two currencies. Having the wisdom of hindsight, it´s now clear that the last two long signals in EUR/JPY were good ones- let´s hope the trend will continue. In EUR/USD last week´s two long signals still remain in the fog of war. It remains to be seen if the market will fall back into the sideways range or continue to climb. Both Kumo breakouts were caused by a falling thin kumo (and not by a large move that would be a bullish signal). Out of curiosity I did a rerun of below analysis, this time using my Kumo breakout filter (ICHI_KUMO_CONFIRM = true, as described in this blog posting), and that EUR/USD signal was filtered out (along with the Kumo breakouts of Sugar and WTI).
 
Indizes in the Eurozone had a strong upmove during last week, is that the first sign of my introductory quote or a bull trap? When connecting last week´s highs and lows, it looks like a nice downwards channel, but as always: can´t wait to be smarter in hindsight :)
Oh, for Gold I would now officially call last couple of weeks movement a sideways range. Nothing of interest for a trendfollower. Silver on the other hand is by Ichimoku definition deep in bear´s territory.
For the complete overview, look at last weeks analysis and compare to this week, for all markets in the investment universe (especially for an intermarket analysis), as usual: check the charts and tables below!
 
 All STRONG signals of the 38th week 2018, ordered by symbols:
+------------+--------+---------------+-------+-------------------+-------------+
| date       | symbol | name          | type  | amp_info          | price_quote | 
+------------+--------+---------------+-------+-------------------+-------------+
| 2018-09-17 | EURUSD | Kumo Breakout | long  | from falling Kumo |    1.168300 |
| 2018-09-20 | SMI    | Kijun Cross   | long  | Golden X          | 9000.800000 |
| 2018-09-20 | SMI    | Kumo Breakout | long  | from rising Kumo  | 9000.800000 |
| 2018-09-20 | SMI    | Senkou Cross  | long  | 2018-10-26        | 9000.800000 |
| 2018-09-17 | Sugar  | Kijun Cross   | short | Death X           |   10.630000 |
| 2018-09-17 | Sugar  | Kumo Breakout | short | from falling Kumo |   10.630000 |
| 2018-09-18 | WTI    | Kumo Breakout | long  | from falling Kumo |   69.850000 |
| 2018-09-19 | WTI    | Senkou Cross  | long  | 2018-10-25        |   71.120000 |
+------------+--------+---------------+-------+-------------------+-------------+

Below is the gallery for the charts:

  • BuFu_lightBuFu_light
  • Cocoa_lightCocoa_light
  • Coffee_lightCoffee_light
  • Copper_lightCopper_light
  • Cotton_lightCotton_light
  • DAX_lightDAX_light
  • DJI_lightDJI_light
  • DJTransp_lightDJTransp_light
  • EURJPY_lightEURJPY_light
  • EURUSD_lightEURUSD_light
  • Gold_lightGold_light
  • HSI_lightHSI_light
  • N225_lightN225_light
  • OJuice_lightOJuice_light
  • Palladium_lightPalladium_light
  • SMI_lightSMI_light
  • SPX_lightSPX_light
  • STOXX50E_lightSTOXX50E_light
  • Silver_lightSilver_light
  • Soybeans_lightSoybeans_light
  • Sugar_lightSugar_light
  • WTI_lightWTI_light

If you downloaded my software and wonder about the system settings, a quick overview for the most relevant ones used for this weekly overview:

  • Ichimoku time period settings are standard (9,26,52), only strong signals are shown.
  • ICHI_CHIKOU_CONFIRM = true (Chikou Span is used as confirmation/ filter for trend).
  • ICHI_KUMO_CONFIRM = false (Kumo breakouts have to be higher/lower than last reaction high/low to be valid)
  • SIGNAL_REGIME_FILTER = none (all market regime filters are off)
  • SIGNAL_EXECUTION_PYRAMID = full (use every signal even if it is already in portfolio)

Below as mentioned the list with the evaluation of the status quo using Ichimoku. The tables also list the last three Strong Ichimoku Signals.

Wish you relaxing Trading!

DAX 2018-09-21 12430.88
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
NOT confirmed by Chikou --> no stable trend
Kumo on 2018-08-16 from 12511.74 to 12654.36 price 12237.17
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-08-30 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Short at 12494.24
2018-08-30 Kijun Cross (from falling Kumo) Short at 12494.24
2018-08-10 Senkou Cross (2018-09-17) Short at 12424.35
     
DJI 2018-09-21 26743.50
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-08-15 from 24467.07 to 24585.66 price 25162.41
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-08-16 Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 25558.73
2018-07-09 Kumo Breakout (Golden X) Long at 24776.59
2018-07-09 Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 24776.59
     
DJTransp 2018-09-21 11532.6
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-08-15 from 10558.4 to 10604.6 price 11115.0
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-07-26 Senkou Cross (2018-08-31) Long at 10984.9
2018-07-16 Kumo Breakout (2018-08-31) Short at 10435.5
2018-07-11 Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) Short at 10442.5
     
HSI 2018-09-21 27953.6
price in kumo --> sideways no trades
Chikou-Span at 30808.4 in kumo or between kumo and price
Kumo on 2018-08-16 from 29041.1 to 29711.7 price 27100.1
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-09-06 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 26974.8
2018-09-05 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 27243.8
2018-09-03 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 27712.5
     
N225 2018-09-21 23891.5
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-08-15 from 22073.5 to 22256.7 price 22204.2
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-09-11 Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) Long at 22665.5
2018-09-11 Kijun Cross (from rising Kumo) Long at 22665.5
2018-08-27 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 22799.6
     
STOXX50E 2018-09-21 3430.81
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
NOT confirmed by Chikou --> no stable trend
Kumo on 2018-08-16 from 3426.76 to 3468.52 price 3377.56
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-08-30 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Short at 3430.99
2018-08-30 Kijun Cross (from falling Kumo) Short at 3430.99
2018-08-15 Senkou Cross (2018-09-20) Short at 3359.08
     
SMI 2018-09-21 8995.4
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
NOT confirmed by Chikou --> no stable trend
Kumo on 2018-08-16 from 8593.6 to 8699.4 price 8997.7
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-09-20 Senkou Cross (2018-10-26) Long at 9000.8
2018-09-20 Kumo Breakout (2018-10-26) Long at 9000.8
2018-09-20 Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 9000.8
     
SPX 2018-09-21 2929.67
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-08-15 from 2695.10 to 2743.79 price 2818.37
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-07-12 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 2798.29
2018-07-06 Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 2759.82
2018-07-05 Chikou Cross (2018-05-29) Long at 2736.61
     
BuFu 2018-09-21 159.00
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-08-16 from 160.88 to 161.77 price 163.49
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-09-07 Senkou Cross (2018-10-15) Short at 159.95
2018-09-07 Kumo Breakout (2018-10-15) Short at 159.95
2018-09-07 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 159.95
     
Cocoa 2018-09-21 2167.00
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
NOT confirmed by Chikou --> no stable trend
Kumo on 2018-08-15 from 2425.00 to 2595.75 price 2083.00
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-09-12 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 2355.00
2018-07-27 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (from falling Kumo) Short at 2219.50
2018-06-22 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 2508.50
     
Coffee 2018-09-21 99.900
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-08-15 from 112.680 to 115.575 price 102.400
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-07-31 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 109.900
2018-07-26 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 109.550
2018-08-13 Chikou Cross (2018-07-06) Short at 106.250
     
Copper 2018-09-21 2.837
price in kumo --> sideways no trades
Chikou-Span at 3.058 in kumo or between kumo and price
Kumo on 2018-08-20 from 2.906 to 3.009 price 2.663
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-09-14 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 2.627
2018-09-04 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 2.583
2018-08-30 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 2.691
     
Cotton 2018-09-21 79.1400
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-08-15 from 86.7875 to 89.1450 price 80.8400
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-08-14 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 83.0600
2018-07-20 Kumo Breakout (Death X) Short at 87.1100
2018-08-13 Chikou Cross (2018-07-06) Short at 82.9300
     
Gold 2018-09-21 1203.400
price in kumo --> sideways no trades
Chikou-Span at 1288.200 in kumo or between kumo and price
Kumo on 2018-08-21 from 1262.000 to 1278.450 price 1192.600
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-06-26 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 1256.600
2018-06-15 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 1274.600
2018-06-11 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 1298.900
     
OJuice 2018-09-21 147.2
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-08-15 from 159.5 to 161.9 price 155.2
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-08-16 Senkou Cross (2018-09-24) Short at 154.4
2018-08-13 Kumo Breakout (2018-09-24) Short at 158.5
2018-07-25 Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 164.8
     
Palladium 2018-09-21 1043.1
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-08-17 from 958.9 to 975.7 price 877.8
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-08-29 Senkou Cross (2018-10-03) Long at 958.5
2018-08-29 Kumo Breakout (2018-10-03) Long at 958.5
2018-08-27 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 941.9
     
Silver 2018-09-21 14.269
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-08-22 from 15.665 to 16.210 price 14.735
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-06-26 Senkou Cross (2018-07-26) Short at 16.275
2018-06-25 Kumo Breakout (2018-07-26) Short at 16.308
2018-06-19 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Short at 16.303
     
Soybeans 2018-09-21 849.8
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-08-20 from 869.6 to 930.8 price 888.0
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-09-04 Senkou Cross (2018-10-08) Short at 845.0
2018-08-10 Kijun Cross (2018-10-08) Short at 850.0
2018-08-27 Chikou Cross (2018-07-22) Short at 847.2
     
Sugar 2018-09-21 10.84
price in kumo --> sideways no trades
Chikou-Span at 11.69 in kumo or between kumo and price
Kumo on 2018-08-15 from 11.82 to 11.88 price 10.23
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-09-17 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Short at 10.63
2018-09-17 Kijun Cross (from falling Kumo) Short at 10.63
2018-09-13 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 11.68
     
WTI 2018-09-21 70.780
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
NOT confirmed by Chikou --> no stable trend
Kumo on 2018-08-17 from 69.430 to 70.840 price 65.910
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-09-19 Senkou Cross (2018-10-25) Long at 71.120
2018-09-18 Kumo Breakout (2018-10-25) Long at 69.850
2018-09-12 Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) Long at 70.370
     
EURJPY 2018-09-21 132.280
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-08-22 from 128.315 to 130.260 price 128.210
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-09-13 Senkou Cross (2018-10-18) Long at 130.840
2018-09-11 Kumo Breakout (2018-10-18) Long at 129.570
2018-09-06 Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) Short at 128.720
     
EURUSD 2018-09-21 1.17500
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
NOT confirmed by Chikou --> no stable trend
Kumo on 2018-08-16 from 1.16780 to 1.17585 price 1.13770
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-09-17 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 1.16830
2018-09-13 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 1.16900
2018-08-31 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Short at 1.16010
     

Comments powered by CComment