Ichimoku overview for week 40 2018

"He´s dead Jim!"

Is he? Major Indices at the moment do not look like they want to continue their uptrends much more... but if the patient really is dead remains to be seen. We might get some interesting end-of-year volatility- on both sides. In hindsight everyone is smarter...

As usual the "market weather backcast" contains the ichimoku analysis of 22 indices, futures and FOREX pairs. The linked charts contain all the details and neccessary context. Both charts and tables are generated automatically, at the moment the software is still work in progress. As such, I am not sure if it works 100% correctly, so if you see a mistake, would like to see an addition/change or simply give feedback: feel free to mail me at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.Thanks a lot :)

Last two weeks triggered 15 signals in 10 different markets (out of 22 in the investment universe):

• Coffee Futures (http://www.investing.com/commodities/us-coffee-c)
• Copper (http://www.investing.com/commodities/copper)
• DAX (http://www.investing.com/indices/germany-30)
• EUR/USD (http://www.investing.com/currencies/eur-usd)
• Gold (http://www.investing.com/commodities/gold)
• Hang Seng Index (http://www.investing.com/indices/hang-sen-40)
• SMI (http://www.investing.com/indices/switzerland-20)
  
• US Soybeans Futures (http://www.investing.com/commodities/us-soybeans)
• Eurostoxx (http://www.investing.com/indices/eu-stoxx50)
• Sugar Futures (http://www.investing.com/commodities/us-sugar-no11)

If you would like to play around with the system that is used to generate the signals and charts on this blog, you can do so! The latest version of my software, ichinscratchy v0.3.0, was released in December 2017. It´s free & open source, you can find it under http://spare-time-trading.de/en/trading-system. Work on the next version (that will be a maintenance release) is progressing nicely. In fact I started using a development snapshot of the upcoming v0.4.0 to do this weekly analysis/overview as this part is already stable enough. You can check out the development activities at gitlab: https://gitlab.com/werwurm/ichi_reloaded.However, there is no release date yet. It´s done when it´s done...

Last week clarified the picture a bit for the indices, and from my perspective it does not look very bullish... DAX now is back within an downtrend, both DJI and SPX had a correction, with DJ Transportation index indicating that correction might not be over (see last week´s analysis). By ichimoku definition DJI is still within a valid uptrend (while SPX is not, chikou is below price- which means nothing more than todays price is lower than the price 26 days before), but be careful. Chinese Hang Seng is within an downtrend since months. The only market that still looks good is Nikkei...

EUR/USD corrected most of its last upmove, no clear direction at the moment. Gold, despite what I can read everywhere ("ripe for an upmove", "very cheap at this level", "blablabla buy"), is still going sideways. I won´t buy until I see a clear long signal.

If you are able to trade Futures, have a look at commodities! Sugar ended its downtrend spectacularly, Coffee is on a good way back to an uptrend, Cotton goes down using the stairs, Crude Oil on the other hand has upside momentum en masse. Just to name a few markets, for the complete overview, look at last weeks analysis and compare to this week, for all markets in the investment universe (especially for an intermarket analysis), as usual: check the charts and tables below!

Below is the gallery for the charts:

• BuFu_contrast
• Cocoa_contrast
• Coffee_contrast
• Copper_contrast
• Cotton_contrast
• DAX_contrast
• DJI_contrast
• DJTransp_contrast
• EURJPY_contrast
• EURUSD_contrast
• Gold_contrast
• HSI_contrast
• N225_contrast
• OJuice_contrast
• Palladium_contrast
• SMI_contrast
• SPX_contrast
• STOXX50E_contrast
• Silver_contrast
• Soybeans_contrast
• Sugar_contrast
• WTI_contrast

If you downloaded my software and wonder about the system settings, a quick overview for the most relevant ones used for this weekly overview:

• Ichimoku time period settings are standard (9,26,52), only strong signals are shown.
• ICHI_CHIKOU_CONFIRM = true (Chikou Span is used as confirmation/ filter for trend).
• ICHI_KUMO_CONFIRM = false (Kumo breakouts have to be higher/lower than last reaction high/low to be valid)
• SIGNAL_REGIME_FILTER = none (all market regime filters are off)
• SIGNAL_EXECUTION_PYRAMID = full (use every signal even if it is already in portfolio)

Below as mentioned the list with the evaluation of the status quo using Ichimoku. The tables also list the last three Strong Ichimoku Signals.

Wish you relaxing Trading!