Ichimoku overview for week 41 2018

"All that is Gold does not glitter, not all those who wander are lost"

It´s always the right time to quote Tolkien, especially when things get interesting. As I speculated last couple of weeks, this IS an interesting autumn...let´s try not get lost.

As usual the "market weather backcast" contains the ichimoku analysis of 22 indices, futures and FOREX pairs. The linked charts contain all the details and neccessary context. Both charts and tables are generated automatically, at the moment the software is still work in progress. As such, I am not sure if it works 100% correctly, so if you see a mistake, would like to see an addition/change or simply give feedback: feel free to mail me at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.Thanks a lot :)

Last two weeks triggered 19 signals in 11 different markets (out of 22 in the investment universe):

• Coffee Futures (http://www.investing.com/commodities/us-coffee-c)
• Copper (http://www.investing.com/commodities/copper)
• DAX (http://www.investing.com/indices/germany-30)
• Dow Jones Index (http://www.investing.com/indices/us-30)
• DJ Transportation Index (http://www.investing.com/indices/dj-transportation-average)
• Gold (http://www.investing.com/commodities/gold)
• SMI (http://www.investing.com/indices/switzerland-20)
  
• US Soybeans Futures (http://www.investing.com/commodities/us-soybeans)
• S&P500 (http://www.investing.com/indices/us-spx-500)
• Eurostoxx (http://www.investing.com/indices/eu-stoxx50)
• Sugar Futures (http://www.investing.com/commodities/us-sugar-no11)

If you would like to play around with the system that is used to generate the signals and charts on this blog, you can do so! The latest version of my software, ichinscratchy v0.3.0, was released in December 2017. It´s free & open source, you can find it under http://spare-time-trading.de/en/trading-system. Work on the next version (that will be a maintenance release) is progressing nicely. In fact I started using a development snapshot of the upcoming v0.4.0 to do this weekly analysis/overview as this part is already stable enough. You can check out the development activities at gitlab: https://gitlab.com/werwurm/ichi_reloaded.However, there is no release date yet. It´s done when it´s done...

I have 8 indices in my trading universe, 6 of them generated short signals, HSI is already within a downtrend, and Nikkei also had a massive drop and isn´t exactly a recommended buy (by ichimoku standards) at the moment. Looks like the DJ Transporter this time was right as a leading indicator, and looking at it´s chart doesn´t show a bright future for longs. If you can short the indices- this is the time to do so. Downtrends are established, the signals are there. All indices fell through their Kumos like the proverbial hot knife through butter, usually the lower/upper bounds of Kumo serve as kind of resistance- not this time.

Some good trends can be found among agricultural commodities: check Coffee and Sugar (see last weeks overview). US Soybeans might be a false signal, the Kumo at the moment is so thin that it does need only minor movements to trigger a breakout.

Looking at currency pairs... nothing to analyze at the moment. Technically EUR/JPY is still within uptrend, but if it does not rise next week, this uptrend will be spoiled by Chikou falling below price (which is not good from a trendfollowing perspective: it means current price is lower than 26 days ago).

For the complete picture, look at last weeks analysis and compare to this week, for all markets in the investment universe (especially for an intermarket analysis), as usual: check the charts and tables below!

Below is the gallery for the charts:

• BuFu_contrast
• Cocoa_contrast
• Coffee_contrast
• Copper_contrast
• Cotton_contrast
• DAX_contrast
• DJI_contrast
• DJTransp_contrast
• EURJPY_contrast
• EURUSD_contrast
• Gold_contrast
• HSI_contrast
• N225_contrast
• OJuice_contrast
• Palladium_contrast
• SMI_contrast
• SPX_contrast
• STOXX50E_contrast
• Silver_contrast
• Soybeans_contrast
• Sugar_contrast
• WTI_contrast

If you downloaded my software and wonder about the system settings, a quick overview for the most relevant ones used for this weekly overview:

• Ichimoku time period settings are standard (9,26,52), only strong signals are shown.
• ICHI_CHIKOU_CONFIRM = true (Chikou Span is used as confirmation/ filter for trend).
• ICHI_KUMO_CONFIRM = false (Kumo breakouts have to be higher/lower than last reaction high/low to be valid)
• SIGNAL_REGIME_FILTER = none (all market regime filters are off)
• SIGNAL_EXECUTION_PYRAMID = full (use every signal even if it is already in portfolio)

Below as mentioned the list with the evaluation of the status quo using Ichimoku. The tables also list the last three Strong Ichimoku Signals.

Wish you relaxing Trading!