Ichimoku overview for week 43 2018

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Saturday evening, time to look back for last two weeks of action.

As usual the "market weather backcast" contains the ichimoku analysis of 22 indices, futures and FOREX pairs. The linked charts contain all the details and neccessary context. Both charts and tables are generated automatically, at the moment the software is still work in progress. As such, I am not sure if it works 100% correctly, so if you see a mistake, would like to see an addition/change or simply give feedback: feel free to mail me at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.Thanks a lot :)

Last two weeks triggered 15 signals in 10 different markets (out of 22 in the investment universe):

If you would like to play around with the system that is used to generate the signals and charts on this blog, you can do so! The latest version of my software, ichinscratchy v0.3.0, was released in December 2017. It´s free & open source, you can find it under http://spare-time-trading.de/en/trading-system. Work on the next version (that will be a maintenance release) is progressing nicely. In fact I started using a development snapshot of the upcoming v0.4.0 to do this weekly analysis/overview as this part is already stable enough. You can check out the development activities at gitlab: https://gitlab.com/werwurm/ichi_reloaded.However, there is no release date yet. It´s done when it´s done...

If you follow the markets, and read other sources than my blog (you wouldn't admit, right? :-D)- there was a lot written about the markets, as it happens everytime when major indices lose > 10 percent of their highs. At the moment all indices in my investment horizon are a clear short, if you take a look at the tabular overview at the end you´ll see a lot of red. 

Euro-Bund Future climbed back into kumo, might be a long candidate soon. Among the other futures, there still a couple of interesting long candidates, check sugar and coffee. EUR/JPY fell an impressing way down from ~133 at the end of September to it´s current low of ~127 last Friday. Hope you were all on the right side on this one...

For the complete picture, look at last weeks analysis and compare to this week, for all markets in the investment universe (especially for an intermarket analysis), as usual: check the charts and tables below!

All STRONG signals of the 42nd week 2018, ordered by symbols:
+------------+----------+---------------+-------+------------------+--------------+
| date       | symbol   | name          | type  | amp_info         | price_quote  |
+------------+----------+---------------+-------+------------------+--------------+
| 2018-10-18 | Cocoa    | Kijun Cross   | short | Death X          | 2145.000000  |
| 2018-10-15 | EURUSD   | Kumo Breakout | long  | from rising Kumo | 1.157900     |
| 2018-10-17 | EURUSD   | Kumo Breakout | short | from rising Kumo | 1.150100     |
| 2018-10-17 | N225     | Kumo Breakout | long  | from rising Kumo | 22841.100000 |
| 2018-10-15 | Soybeans | Senkou Cross  | long  | 2018-11-19       | 890.800000   |
| 2018-10-18 | SPX      | Kumo Breakout | short | from rising Kumo | 2768.780000  |
+------------+----------+---------------+-------+------------------+--------------+
 
All STRONG signals of the 43rd week 2018, ordered by symbols:
+------------+----------+---------------+-------+------------------+--------------+
| date       | symbol   | name          | type  | amp_info         | price_quote  |
+------------+----------+---------------+-------+------------------+--------------+
| 2018-10-18 | Cocoa    | Kijun Cross   | short | Death X          | 2145.000000  |
| 2018-10-15 | EURUSD   | Kumo Breakout | long  | from rising Kumo | 1.157900     |
| 2018-10-17 | EURUSD   | Kumo Breakout | short | from rising Kumo | 1.150100     |
| 2018-10-17 | N225     | Kumo Breakout | long  | from rising Kumo | 22841.100000 |
| 2018-10-15 | Soybeans | Senkou Cross  | long  | 2018-11-19       | 890.800000   |
| 2018-10-18 | SPX      | Kumo Breakout | short | from rising Kumo | 2768.780000  |
+------------+----------+---------------+-------+------------------+--------------+
 
Below is the gallery for the charts:

  • BuFu_contrastBuFu_contrast
  • Cocoa_contrastCocoa_contrast
  • Coffee_contrastCoffee_contrast
  • Copper_contrastCopper_contrast
  • Cotton_contrastCotton_contrast
  • DAX_contrastDAX_contrast
  • DJI_contrastDJI_contrast
  • DJTransp_contrastDJTransp_contrast
  • EURJPY_contrastEURJPY_contrast
  • EURUSD_contrastEURUSD_contrast
  • Gold_contrastGold_contrast
  • HSI_contrastHSI_contrast
  • N225_contrastN225_contrast
  • OJuice_contrastOJuice_contrast
  • Palladium_contrastPalladium_contrast
  • SMI_contrastSMI_contrast
  • SPX_contrastSPX_contrast
  • STOXX50E_contrastSTOXX50E_contrast
  • Silver_contrastSilver_contrast
  • Soybeans_contrastSoybeans_contrast
  • Sugar_contrastSugar_contrast
  • WTI_contrastWTI_contrast

If you downloaded my software and wonder about the system settings, a quick overview for the most relevant ones used for this weekly overview:

  • Ichimoku time period settings are standard (9,26,52), only strong signals are shown.
  • ICHI_CHIKOU_CONFIRM = true (Chikou Span is used as confirmation/ filter for trend).
  • ICHI_KUMO_CONFIRM = false (Kumo breakouts have to be higher/lower than last reaction high/low to be valid)
  • SIGNAL_REGIME_FILTER = none (all market regime filters are off)
  • SIGNAL_EXECUTION_PYRAMID = full (use every signal even if it is already in portfolio)

Below as mentioned the list with the evaluation of the status quo using Ichimoku. The tables also list the last three Strong Ichimoku Signals.

Wish you relaxing Trading!

DAX 2018-10-26 11200.62
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-09-19 from 12553.79 to 12637.23 price 12219.02
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-10-09 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 11977.22
2018-10-05 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 12111.90
2018-09-28 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Short at 12246.73
     
DJI 2018-10-26 24688.31
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-09-20 from 24844.96 to 25292.33 price 26656.98
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-10-23 Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) Short at 25191.43
2018-10-11 Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) Short at 25052.83
2018-08-16 Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 25558.73
     
DJTransp 2018-10-26 9965.7
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-09-20 from 10722.6 to 10947.0 price 11517.4
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-10-10 Senkou Cross (2018-11-15) Short at 10550.9
2018-10-10 Kumo Breakout (2018-11-15) Short at 10550.9
2018-07-26 Senkou Cross (2018-08-31) Long at 10984.9
     
HSI 2018-10-26 24717.6
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-09-17 from 28253.1 to 29549.6 price 26932.8
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-10-04 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 26623.9
2018-10-02 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 27126.4
2018-09-06 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 26974.8
     
N225 2018-10-26 21184.6
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-09-18 from 22237.3 to 22371.4 price 23434.0
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-10-23 Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) Short at 22010.8
2018-10-17 Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) Long at 22841.1
2018-09-11 Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) Long at 22665.5
     
STOXX50E 2018-10-26 3134.89
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-09-20 from 3437.53 to 3440.75 price 3403.12
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-10-10 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 3266.90
2018-10-05 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 3345.51
2018-09-28 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Short at 3399.20
     
SMI 2018-10-26 8665.8
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-09-20 from 8793.1 to 8994.3 price 9000.8
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-10-11 Senkou Cross (2018-11-16) Short at 8639.2
2018-10-11 Kumo Breakout (2018-11-16) Short at 8639.2
2018-09-20 Senkou Cross (2018-10-26) Long at 9000.8
     
SPX 2018-10-26 2658.69
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-09-20 from 2777.71 to 2823.49 price 2930.75
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-10-18 Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) Short at 2768.78
2018-10-10 Senkou Cross (from rising Kumo) Short at 2785.68
2018-10-10 Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) Short at 2785.68
     
BuFu 2018-10-26 160.87
price in kumo --> sideways no trades
Chikou-Span at 160.40 in kumo or between kumo and price
Kumo on 2018-09-20 from 161.60 to 162.47 price 158.74
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-09-07 Senkou Cross (2018-10-15) Short at 159.95
2018-09-07 Kumo Breakout (2018-10-15) Short at 159.95
2018-09-07 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 159.95
     
Cocoa 2018-10-26 2251.00
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
NOT confirmed by Chikou --> no stable trend
Kumo on 2018-09-20 from 2203.25 to 2314.00 price 2201.00
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-10-18 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 2145.00
2018-09-12 Kumo Breakout (Death X) Long at 2355.00
2018-07-27 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 2219.50
     
Coffee 2018-10-26 119.650
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-09-20 from 108.088 to 114.650 price 99.750
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-10-08 Senkou Cross (2018-11-13) Long at 111.850
2018-10-02 Kumo Breakout (2018-11-13) Long at 107.650
2018-09-24 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 98.500
     
Copper 2018-10-26 2.744
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
NOT confirmed by Chikou --> no stable trend
Kumo on 2018-09-20 from 2.692 to 2.921 price 2.721
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-10-11 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 2.797
2018-10-09 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 2.795
2018-10-03 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 2.822
     
Cotton 2018-10-26 78.5500
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
NOT confirmed by Chikou --> no stable trend
Kumo on 2018-09-20 from 85.7950 to 89.1450 price 78.4600
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-10-24 Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 77.0600
2018-08-14 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (Death X) Short at 83.0600
2018-07-20 Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) Short at 87.1100
     
Gold 2018-10-26 1232.500
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
NOT confirmed by Chikou --> no stable trend
Kumo on 2018-09-21 from 1196.075 to 1234.550 price 1203.400
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-10-11 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 1223.500
2018-10-11 Kijun Cross (from falling Kumo) Long at 1223.500
2018-10-08 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Short at 1184.400
     
OJuice 2018-10-26 135.6
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-09-20 from 162.6 to 163.1 price 147.4
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-08-16 Senkou Cross (2018-09-24) Short at 154.4
2018-08-13 Kumo Breakout (2018-09-24) Short at 158.5
2018-07-25 Kijun Cross (Golden X) Long at 164.8
     
Palladium 2018-10-26 1091.6
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-09-26 from 871.9 to 904.6 price 1058.8
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-08-29 Senkou Cross (2018-10-01) Long at 958.5
2018-08-29 Kumo Breakout (2018-10-01) Long at 958.5
2018-08-27 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 941.9
     
Silver 2018-10-26 14.705
price in kumo --> sideways no trades
Chikou-Span at 15.744 in kumo or between kumo and price
Kumo on 2018-09-26 from 14.826 to 15.295 price 14.305
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-10-23 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 14.780
2018-09-26 Kijun Cross (from falling Kumo) Short at 14.305
2018-08-29 Senkou Cross (2018-10-01) Long at 958.500
     
Soybeans 2018-10-26 844.8
price in kumo --> sideways no trades
Chikou-Span below kumo at 892.5
Kumo on 2018-09-26 from 874.2 to 877.6 price 847.8
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-10-15 Senkou Cross (2018-11-19) Long at 890.8
2018-10-12 Kumo Breakout (2018-11-19) Long at 867.5
2018-10-05 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 869.2
     
Sugar 2018-10-26 13.84
price above kumo --> Uptrend Signal filter LONG
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-09-20 from 10.77 to 11.59 price 10.80
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-10-10 Senkou Cross (2018-11-15) Long at 12.85
2018-10-10 Tenkan/Kijun Cross (2018-11-15) Long at 12.85
2018-10-01 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 11.61
     
WTI 2018-10-26 67.590
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-09-20 from 67.610 to 69.430 price 70.800
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-10-23 Senkou Cross (2018-11-28) Short at 66.430
2018-10-23 Kumo Breakout (2018-11-28) Short at 66.430
2018-09-19 Senkou Cross (2018-10-25) Long at 71.120
     
EURJPY 2018-10-26 127.630
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-09-26 from 127.855 to 128.450 price 132.340
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-10-23 Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) Short at 129.000
2018-09-13 Senkou Cross (from rising Kumo) Long at 130.840
2018-09-11 Kumo Breakout (from falling Kumo) Long at 129.570
     
EURUSD 2018-10-26 1.14030
price below kumo --> Downtrend Signal filter SHORT
confirmed by Chikou-Span
Kumo on 2018-09-20 from 1.14968 to 1.15760 price 1.17770
Last 3 STRONG signals:
2018-10-24 Senkou Cross (2018-11-29) Short at 1.13920
2018-10-17 Kumo Breakout (2018-11-29) Short at 1.15010
2018-10-15 Kumo Breakout (from rising Kumo) Long at 1.15790
     

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